The high tide of 2016, when will the tide recede

As 2016 is drawing to a close, the prices of solder, steel, and non-woven fabrics have soared across the board due to factors such as natural fluctuations in CPI, structural regulation on the supply side, general rise in raw material prices, and boosting demand for economic recovery. Throughout the whole year, the price of solder has been rising all the way, occupies a high level and fluctuated slightly; the price of steel has risen sharply, setting two peaks throughout the year; the textile industry has maintained an upward trend, and the rebound in crude oil prices has strongly driven PTA, ethylene glycol and other chemical fiber raw materials, chemical fiber, The price of non-woven fabrics is rising. Taking tin as precious Soldering tin remains high and difficult. Since 2016, tin prices have been on a volatile upward trend. The output of major tin-producing countries in the upper reaches of the world has declined, LME inventories are at historically low levels, the supply of tin has shrunk, and downstream demand has stabilized. Myanmar, China's largest tin ore importer, has entered the rainy season. Recent production has fallen and supplies have become more tight. Tin prices will continue to fluctuate and rise. Constrained by environmental protection and production capacity, the operating rate of mining enterprises has not increased significantly, and the supply of domestic raw materials has not increased significantly, resulting in prices that tend to rise but never fall. Directly affected by high tin prices, the prices of 60, 63, and lead-free solders have risen simultaneously throughout the year. Up to now, 60 and 63 solders have hovered at a high price of 100,000 yuan/ton. After lead-free solder hit a peak of 138,000 yuan/ton in November, Currently, it fluctuates at a high level of 130,000/ton. Economic recovery, steel scored twice. In 2016, domestic steel prices rose sharply, setting two peaks throughout the year. December and April were the highest and second highest points in the past two years, respectively, and the Mavericks market showed obvious signs. The monitored rebar benchmark price fluctuates by 80% during the year, which is also the largest increase in rebar in 2016. In 2016, the steel market changed from last year's downward trend to an upward trend, and the black industrial chain represented by rebar was active. In the first three quarters of this year, GDP growth rate reached 6.7% year-on-year, showing steady growth. The domestic manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has shown signs of recovery since the second quarter, and there has been a relatively strong rise in the third quarter; the PPI index ended 54 consecutive months in the negative region and turned positive in September. Supply-side reforms have injected new vitality into the economy. Through the elimination of outdated production capacity and the deleveraging of industrial enterprises, domestic industries have gotten rid of the deflationary pattern, and domestic inflation has risen moderately. The textile uptrend non-woven fabric is now rising tide. China's non-woven fabric production data in the previous August. China's non-woven fabric production and profitability in the previous August. The non-woven fabric output from January to August 2016 was 3,690,300 tons, an increase of 7.70% year-on-year; The cloth output was 558,700 tons, an increase of 8.35% year-on-year; it shows that China's non-woven cloth output is growing well. The gross profit margin of the non-woven fabric industry from January to August 2016 was 11.70%, the three expense ratio (the sum of operating, management and financial expense ratios) was 7.01%, the profit rate was 5.85%, and the industry's loss side was 9.85%. It can be seen that the production, operation and profitability of the non-woven fabric industry are relatively good. After the G20 held the “stopping wave” of printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the printing and dyeing industry of Guangdong Province has also recently experienced a “stopping heat”. Due to supply-side structural regulation and environmental protection control, a large number of printing and dyeing factories in Guangdong have been shut down recently, and the upstream weaving industry and the downstream clothing and home textile industries have been directly affected. With the development of the textile industry going up and the demand for non-woven fabrics at the end of the year was strong, the supply contraction led to further price increases. As the new year is approaching, solder, steel, and non-woven fabrics are rising fiercely. It can be foreseen that the shipments will be positive in the near future, but high-level transactions are not ideal, and high-level purchases tend to be on the sidelines. With the adjustment of the printing and dyeing industry after 2017 and the resumption of a large number of printing and dyeing factories, the price of non-woven fabrics will gradually stabilize. After a year, various industries may fully recover, prices return to rationality, and major industries may fall across the board after a new round of increases.